A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z ehnlinx/n.htm -- rev 8/13/99

Claire Gilbert writes: NOTE: You may distribute this freely because of the importance of the instructions included concerning what to do if there is a chemical release. Y2K WRAPUP, AND WHAT TO DO IF THERE'S A CHEMICAL RELEASE OR BLACKOUT* By Claire W. Gilbert, Ph.D., Copyright 1999 claire@blazingtattles.com In previous issues of Blazing Tattles, some key areas of Y2K concerns were examined in great depth: How safe are chemical plants? http://www.blazingtattles.com/info/plants.htm. Would we have electrical power? http://www.blazingtattles.com/info/power.htm Embedded chips were seen as the 2K wild card. http://www.blazingtattles.com/info/wildcard.htm I was very concerned at the prospects for grave consequences of a techno- logical "accident waiting to happen." This is what I have subsequently learned: New strategies have developed so that many organizations plan to fix problems as they arise instead of trying to eradicate them all by year's end. There is a great deal of optimism that there will be few problems from the rollover, and that they can be handled quickly. I am not that sanguine, mostly because among those who fully understand Y2K, few if any claim to know exactly what will happen, where it will happen, and when it will happen. I am hoping that life goes on fairly normally, but until the rollover and the weeks that follow, I won't be sure. All of the potentials for problems and mishaps that were described in my earlier articles still exist. In my opinion, if the embedded chips do not cause chaos, we'll all come out smelling like roses. Software code problems, compounded, could bring down large, interdependent systems. We'll soon know. I think the attitude people take toward the ambiguity that exists here pretty much represents their general way of seeing things. Most people I've spoken with see no problem or very little of importance happening at the rollover. I maintain the same position I've held all along. I say I just don't know. I do know of a few gliches that have hurt industrial organization lately, related to Y2K computer remediation. Something happened to the inventory of the Hershey Chocolate Company, and they were not able to ship for the big Halloween market. Then Volkswagen's main parts division in Europe had a glich and lost control of being able to ship parts, for weeks. I don't know if this has been remedied. I do see Hershey's chocolate in the stores once again, so I presume they've conquered their problem. The latest I heard was a company called "Midland." I believe it is Archer Daniels Midland. They have two computer systems, one for inventory control and one for distribution. In fixing or replacing them, unfortunately the term "unit" got definied differently in each system fix, so that in one system, "unit" mean "case of items" and in the other system, "unit" meant "individual item." I read that some companies that ordered a case of a product actually received just one bottle or item; while others that ordered one bottle or item, received an entire case of them. If these are the worst problems that occur, plus people getting electric bills for 1900 instead of 2000, we will have gotten off easy. I am going to omit discussion here of the projected intermediate Y2K problems that result in economic slow- downs such as those due to "just in time" inventories being slowed up, cascade and domino effects, etc., leading many critics to expect a recession. I'll omit discussion of other problems resulting from corrupted data being exchanged between various computer systems, having a slow but serious impact on the economy. I would like to conclude that some slowdown is inevita- ble, but I've been wrong about such things before, so I have an open mind. The one thing I am not sure about is the embedded chips. There are billions of them in the US and around the world. A tiny fraction of them will fail. They can fail whether or not they are involved in time keeping. Many managers who have asserted that embedded chips were not going to be a problem in their computers did not understand that chips can fail even if they have no time keeping function. ACCIDENTS: CHEMICAL OR NUCLEAR What I do believe, if what I've read about embedded chips is valid, is that we could have chemical plant or even nuclear acci- dents. It is important to know what to do and be at least mentally prepared to take action, should it be necessary. If there is an airborne toxic release, a good method of protection is called "Shelter (or Sheltering)-in-Place." Sheltering inside a building is considered to be a proven method of protecting yourself and your family in the event of an accidental release. The information regarding sheltering-in-place is based upon a course taught by the Oregon Fire Department Training Center, Emergency Communications for Hazardous Operations. There may be a time when an emergency takes place in your community due to an airborne toxic chemical release. The outside air quality may be affected to the point that it is not safe to be outside or evacuate. In a case like this it is usually safer to shelter-in-place until wind disperses and moves the toxic chemical away. NOTIFICATION Many, but not all, facilities (chemnical/ industrial plants) and emergency vehicles, have alarm, siren, horn, or similar notification devices or systems. A three to five minute continuous signal means: "Turn on TV or radio. Listen for essentail emergency information." These variuous signal devices may use different tones. They key is that they will be continuously activated for three to five minutes. If you hear this signal, go inside immediately (your home, school, store, or public building) and turn on a radio or TV to listen for emergency information. If you are already indoors, stay there. Bring in pets, if practical. For airborne toxic chemical releases, the safest immediate action is to shelter-in-place while listening for further instructions. SHELTER-IN-PLACE Once you have turned on a radio or TV, close all windows and doors. Turn off all ventilation systems -- heating, cooling, air pumps, bathroom & kitchen fans, oven/stove ventilation fans, dryer exhaust, chimney/fireplace vents, etc. In buildings, go into and seal a room, if possible. Continue to listen to radio or TV for further instructions. INSTRUCTIONS See above, or if you are in a vehicle, close all windows, manual vents, and ventilation systems. In a structure, shut all windows, doors, chimney or fire place vents, including anything you can quickly and easily close to prevent the chemical from entering. Go into a room, preferably with no, or few windows, or outside air vents. If possible seal doors, windows, vents, etc., with plastic tape or wet rags. Continue to listen to the radio on emergency alert stations until the emergency is over or further instructions are provided. If power is off, use a battery powered radio. SHELTER-IN-PLACE PRE-PLANNING It is important to have a sheltering-in-place plan for business, school, and home. Some key steps in the plan are: -  Know what doors and windows are likely to be open and assign someone to check and close and lock them. Locking seals them better. -  Know where the manual vents are and how to close them. -  Know where forced air heating or cooling control/power exhaust vents are and how to turn them off. -  Know what room you will go to and how to seal it. Have a kit pre-prepared for this consisting of things such as plastic sheeting, duct tape, rags, towels, water, snacks, etc. Pre-cut plastic to completely seal all windows and doors and any vents in your designated shelter room. With easy-to-see large labels, clearly mark on the plastic which opening/window/door/vent it fits. Make a kit containing the items you will need, and keep it accessible in the designated room. Make sure all members of the family (or peopole who will use the room) know what the kit is for, how to use it, and why. -  Select a room in the building where occupants can be the most comfortable and which is easy to seal off. This room should, if possible, provide access to water, toilet facilities, and adquate room for people to sit or lie down. In homes, many people opt for the master bedroom area with bathroom. -  Drill and practice Sheltering-in-Place. -  Have a radio (preferably two). Have one electric and one battery operated radio in the room you've identified. Know the emergency alert system station(s) for your area and have the station numbers written on a peice of tape attached to the radio. SAFETY PRECAUTIONS Most chemical release incidents are short-term in nature. For any emergency situation, keep an adequate supply of contained food and water, flashlights, first aid kit, batteries, a portable radio, essential medicines, and other essentials. Practice safety drills to be prepared, and know the emergency plans for your workplace or school. If the gas or vapor is soluble or even partially soluble in water, hold a wet cloth or handkerchief over your nose and mouth if the gases start to bother you. For a higher degree of protection, go into the bathroom, close the door, and turn on the shower in a strong spray to "wash" the air. Seal any openings to the outside of the bathroom as best you can. Don't worry about running out of air to breathe. That is highly unlikely in normal homes and buildings. During ordinary times, when a release or spill is identified, some chemical plants dispatch trained emergency reponders to quickly assess the situation and plan an appropriate reponse. If offsite impacts are possible, local response agencies (Emerency Management Agency, Fire Department, etc.) are contacted and consulted with. The local response agencies will then decide what actions, if any, are necessary to protect the surrounding community. However, if it's a Y2K accident, communications may be overwhelmed or not working; emergency responders may be completely overwhelmed. In the community from which I just moved, police have already been on notice to serve a more populated area several miles away. In Miami, an acquaintance of mine, who is a volunteer police worker, has been asked to serve on New Year's Eve. MY STRATEGY IF THE POWER GRID GOES DOWN I once took part in a research project on thermonuclear war, in which we had to learn to "think about the unthinkable." Perhaps that colors my approach today to Y2K, who knows? In any case, I think it is healthy to fearlessly consider prospects. Now this may not be for most people, I can't say. But what I do is figure the possibilities for Y2K. To my way of thinking, the very worst thing that could happen is for an electricl blackout to occur over North America. I am not talking about regional or local blackouts or rolling brownouts, and the like. I am talking about the entire electrical distribution system in the US and North America as failing. The electrical distribution system is transnational, so it is possible that the whole of North America could go down. There is difference of opinion as to whether the electrical system would ever come back up again. I believe it would not. I am not trying to frighten anyone. You know, there is little likelihood that will happen, but it is not impossible either -- and if it ever is going to happen in our lifetimes, it will likely happen very soon. DO A LITTLE MENTAL EXPERIMENT If you aren't already prepared for this possibility (and almost no one is), you will not have time to get fully ready in terms of the things you would need to maintain anything like your current lifestyle, but you can do a mental experiment by consid- ering all the things in your life that depend upon electricity. Then picture your life without those things. I see the advantage of doing this mental experiment is that it cuts to the core of what life might become soon. It isn't likely, but the stakes are massive. Somehow I think a little, fearless mental rehersal will make any transition necessary in the future much easier, and -- if need be -- will perhaps help you to survive by cluing you in on what you still can do in a few days: get water, layered clothing (if the heat goes out in the middle of winter), and food in the house to sustain you until you'd get your bearings. Oh, yes, and spending money for a few months. Get some of it in small coins in case the registers at the store aren't working and they can't make change. I think those are the basics. I'm planning on everything being all right after the rollover, but I did put in 15 gallons of drinking water for myself plus some washing water, and supplies to make either a very inexpensive (cheap to make) solarbox cooker http://www.forums.cosmoaccess.net/forum/survival/prep/ solarbox.htm or solar funnel cooker http://solarcooking.org/funnel.htm. If you have no web access, call me for instructions, or -- better yet -- find a relative, friend, or neighbor, who has web access and can print out the instructions for you. You'll be doing her or him a favor, too! I also have perhaps a month's worth of calories in storable foods, some basic vitamins, etc. I have a few extra batteries and just discovered the battery portion of my battery operated radio is broken. I plan to pick up another battery operated radio before the rollover. I have a solar radio, but I'm not sure it really recharges. In the longer terms, I have seeds to grow alfalfa and bean sprouts in the house (something I do any- how) and seeds to grow food and herbs outdoors (except my grounds get little direct sunlight). I have also looked around a little in my area in Tampa, mostly using a map, to see where there might be fresh water, such as a river or a creek -- just in case there is no water supply. As you can see, my efforts have not been big or systematic. I always meant to be more systematic, but like most others, just never got around to it. Just put it off and put it off. Then I made a major, cross-country move and left behind most everything I had put aside. Now, my preparation just give me a little "wiggle room" if things get bad. I think you can see from my description above that I have been hap-hazard in my Y2K preparations. One thing I did do right was buy a 72 hour emergency kit backpack, which can sustain life for 72 hours in most situations. You might say I just "fell into" the kit. I think people who live in California -- as I recently did for seven years -- get emergency-oriented because of the threat of earthquakes. But then again, now I'm in Florida, and I think people would get emergency-oriented here because of the threat of hurricanes. Loss of power, however, should it happen, however unlikely it is, would differ from hurricanes and earthquakes in that there would be no help from the outside. I'm assuming if the U.S., the most advanced country in the world, and the whole of North American are in the dark, the rest of the world would also be in the dark. It is at such time that skills of a hundred years ago would be very handy indeed. And a good relationship with the Higher Power in whom you believe. ---- *From Blazing Tattles, December 1999-January 2000. 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